Russo Ukrainian War: An Analysis From an Indian Perspective

Aadi and I had to carry out an analysis on the Russo Ukrainian war on public demand. This analysis is from an India perspective. The video is in English.

6 responses to “Russo Ukrainian War: An Analysis From an Indian Perspective”

  1. Sir,
    The narrative war is oversold especially when it comes to a country like Russia. Why do they need to care what the world thinks as long as they achieve their objectives on the ground in whatever timeframe they have in mind. It will matter only if it causes Russia to lose its will to fight but, if anything, the opposite has happened with popular support for the war surging in Russia. and a rejuvenation of their MIC. The western influence peddlers in Russia -the corrupt oligarchs who were obstacles for Putin- have been decapitated by the West itself with their sanctions against everything Russian. The biggest loser, in addition to Ukraine, is Europe, especially Germany which has lost access to cheap energy, the main factor for their industrial might. The US seems to be sitting pretty as of now but with 100+ billion down the drain and many more to follow, the impact on its budget will surely be felt. It has also shown up the inadequacy of the western MIC despite spending trillions on the defense budget over the years. The MIC will now show the deficiencies that have been exposed to lobby for trillions more and all said and done, even the US cannot sustain this for long and it seems like de-dollarization isn’t very far away.

    The lessons for India, imho, are:

    (a) Reduce external dependencies to the minimum,
    (b) Minimize the influence of Western & Chinese propaganda,, especially our mis-placed reverence for Western academia and leadership,
    (c) Never forget Kissingers adage “To be an enemy of America can be dangerous, but to be a friend is fatal.” As our colonial history shows, this is generally true of any western country.
    (d) Most importantly, boots on the ground still matter and, as you have stated frequently, we must be very careful about diluting the combat man power of our forces, especially the Army.

    1. Your comment was an excellent summary of the situation. In truth, this war has gone very badly for the Biden Regime & Russia is doing fine with only a 2% drop in GDP 2022 with the IMF estimating Russia’s economic growth will outperform the UK & France by grow6by at least 0.3%. In addition, this war has benefited India by giving india a relative competitive advantage over other countries due to discounted russian crude oil and due to the war harming China (which lost all of its agro, infra and miltech acquisition nvestments in Ukraine including the motorsich engine factory which Russia blew up). The war has greatly improved India’s leverage with all poles or poweblocks, including against Russia, the United States, China, the EU and against ASEAN. It also has helped kick Pakistan over the edge by raising commodity prices over their already teetering reach while drying up western focus and funds for pakistan which are now all dedicated to Ukraine. People need to star looking at the forest from the trees.

      1. Some corrections to my comment above:
        1) I meant the IMF estimates that Russia’s GDP will GROW by 0.3% in 2023 outperforming UK & France’s projected growth.

        2) I had heard China had invested over $20 billion in Ukraine in Agro land as well as in infrastructure (now bombed, destoyed etc) and was attempting to acquire helicopter gas turbine technology by investing/trying to acquire Motorsich company. In addition, they were well into the process of acquiring turbofan technology from the Ukrainian entity that supplied engines to Antonov. There may have been other acquisitions too. All of this investment and effort have been scuppered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
        When PLA Col. Zhou Bo says publicly that this war was not in China’s interest, I suspect he might not be lying.

  2. Dear Gen Narayanan, the following interview of a PLA Col Zhou Bo taken at the Munich Security Conference (his name is pronounced “Joe Baw” might be of interest to you. Highlights, Col Zhou admits that the PLA/N/AF are not a world class military and won’t be world class until 2050, if that.
    This interview was posted by a user on Aadi Achint ‘s telegram group chat channel, he had asked it be passed on to you, so here is the DW News interview link off YouTube:


      1. Greatest apologies, I meant both General Shankar and General Narayanan. It was a typo, you’re name got “autocorrected” or deleted (I’m not sure which) while I was editing the comment here. I have visited your website/blog “gunnershot” (Excellent articles, by the way) in the past & I’ve followed you, General. Shankar, on multiple video channels. It’s a privilege to communicate with you (even if I use a pseudonym as my ID) As you obviously know, anything PLA Col. Zhou Bo says in public has to be taken with a grain of salt, however his public admission that the Chinese military is not world class is interesting. If you have contact with General Narayanan please pass the video link to him as well.
        Best Regards

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