Also Published in The Financial Express @ https://www.financialexpress.com/world-news/the-multi-domain-threat-beyond-yangtse/2930533/
War is politics with blood shed
Politics is war without blood shed
……Mao
The Yangtse incident, when examined, against the back drop of the politico military objectives of China, Xi Jinping’s persona, decline of China and relative rise of India indicates that India needs to be prepared for the next Yangtse. How does one identify the next Yangtse? Afterall, the next Yangtse might not be on land at all but in one or more of the other domains, through which China wages war against its adversaries. It is therefore important to understand the tenets of China’s multidomain war and identify likely actions in each domain. Unless we are clear about Chinese lines of action and operational concepts we will be flailing against windmills when they “make a feint to the East and attack in the West.”
Chinese Operational Thought
Xi Jinping’s strategic guidance drives the Operational Concepts of the PLA. As per them, PLA must win ‘Informatized’ local and regional wars at present and win ‘Intelligentised’ wars in future. The Chinese believe that war is not just a confrontation of opposing military forces but is a contest of political, economic, diplomatic, cultural, and other forces. PLA writings indicate that future wars will be “full-dimensional”. In addition to the land air and sea dimensions, wars will be waged in electromagnetic, information, AI, psychological , space , cyber and other domains. In a “full-dimensional” system “conventional time-space constraints on military operations is dwindling and will be replaced with integrated joint operations taking place over a broad range of space and time with highly integrated forces”. Further, as per Chinese thought, “combat space” is the limited geographic area where actual physical conflict occurs. On the other hand, “war space” is unlimited to encompass physical and nonphysical domains. The emphasis is not only on annihilation of enemy forces in the “combat space” but on disruption, paralysis, or destruction of the adversary in the larger “war space”. It can be achieved through kinetic and non-kinetic means. The whole idea is to achieve “comprehensive dominance” so that the enemy “loses the will and ability to resist”. This conflates well with the theory of unrestricted warfare propagated by Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsu, at the turn of the century. It also explains the grey zone tactics which they employ to push the envelope of conflict. When all these issues are conflated, the Multi Domain Model emerges.
In the Chinese context, Multi Domain Operations (MDO) can be defined as conventional and/or non-conventional war carried out by state, non-state or state sponsored actors using hard and soft power during war, conflict or peace situations by day or night for specified national outcomes in various interacting and overlapping domains. These operations can be overt, covert or in the gray zone. The multiple domains are represented in the graphic below.
Conventional Domains : Land, Air and Sea
Despite advances in technology and modernist thinking, the importance of land, air and sea domains cannot be diminished in a Sino Indian context. With a disputed 3500 km boundary with India, and the Chinese necessity of entering the IOR in order to become a superpower, the conventional domain will always dominate the strained relationship. While most analysts postulate the hegemonistic assertion of China, there is also a huge geographic vulnerability it faces. To an extent, Chinese military postures are also defensive in nature. Hence, the primacy of the conventional domains in the Sino Indian context cannot be wished away.
Land. China wants to settle in LAC in its favour which includes all its claimed areas. The length and nebulousness of the LAC , and its political and emotive importance, forces China to focus on it. China will continuously attempt to unilaterally alter the status of the LAC incrementally in its favour by salami slicing. It will attempt to do so in areas which further its long term claims. It will also create situations in those areas which are sensitive to India. China will exploit its hold over Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar, and Bangladesh to target India indirectly. Areas where the perception of the LAC overlaps and is disputed will be the most likely targets since any action in such areas has legal cover and has clear political benefits. .
Sea. Increased naval activity in the IOR will be the norm. Chinese spy ships with electronic warfare capability will sail in the high seas to monitor and interfere with our space and maritime activity. China will also relentlessly pursue to establish bases in Sri Lanka (Hambantota), Pakistan (Gwadar) and Myanmar (Kyaukpyu) as part of its two ocean strategy. There will be a constant effort to solve the Malacca dilemma. Chinese naval activity will increase as its foot print in Africa and the Middle East increases.
Air. At present , China is restricted by inadequate air power along the LAC and in the IOR. However, PLAAF and specially its rocket force will be used to intimidate India psychologically through well publicised firings and exercises close to the border. China will increase the pace of building infrastructure along the LAC till it can deploy sufficient air force offensively to prosecute land operations. In the meantime, China will keep testing Indian aerial reactions along the LAC by minor infringements.
Disruptive Technology Domains: Cyberspace, Space, Nuclear and Electromagnetic Spectrum
The disruptive technology domains are interactive and interdependent domains. These key domains underpin sustained Chinese multi domain operations to dominate adversaries. The quest to retain the cutting edge in these domains is fully supported by it civil military fusion strategies.
Cyberspace . The cyberspace domain is being exploited to the hilt as we continue buying Chinese communication equipment for our networks. The AIIMS hack is only a trailer. Unless we do something drastic, we are in trouble. China will exploit this vulnerability increasingly to paralyse our national grids one day.
Space. Mr Xi Jinping is investing in space in a big way. Continuous space based monitoring of all activity in the IOR and the Indian landmass is hereafter par for the course and will only increase. The presence of the Yuan Wang class of surveillance vessels which can communicate and control Chinese satellites is only a pointer of things to come. Space will be used extensively for Chinese UAV operations and to support informatisation of the battle field.
Nuclear. Chinese believe that a potent nuclear capability strengthens the nation. accordingly, China is fast increasing and modernising its nuclear arsenal with a fully functional triad capability. It could have up to 700 deliverable nuclear warheads by 2027 and at least 1,000 by 2030 as per estimates. It is also looking to nuclearize its hypersonic systems which are under development. There are also indications that it could deploy space based nukes in the near future. In this backdrop, the nuclear card will be played up subtly by China as the implied threat. The explicit threat will come from Pakistan (at China’s prodding).
Electromagnetic Spectrum. The electromagnetic spectrum is a key element if PLA is to win “Informatized Local Wars.” The spectrum encompasses Information and AI besides the full range of EW. The electronic spectrum will be used for intelligence acquisition as also to control our decision making capacities. The impact of Chinese AI and its effect on our national security has been highlighted earlier. The plethora of cheap Chinese mobiles will be a continual drain of big data to feed Chinese AI systems.
Three War Strategy Domains : Public Opinion, Legal and Influence Operations
The Chinese ‘Three war’ strategies uses public opinion warfare, influence operations, and legal warfare to shape target populations, organize psychological offense and defense, engage in legal struggle, and fight to gain popular will. It aims to divide the enemy into factions and weaken his combat power through sustained propaganda. Overall, China places great emphasis on “cognitive space” and seeks to create favourable conditions across the enlarged war space through manipulated cognition. These domains are the basis on which Chinese narratives are built propagated internationally.
Public Opinion. The CCP shapes public opinion, conveys political intent and prepares ground for other domains to succeed. China weaponizes public opinion by manipulation, misinformation, sowing dissent, and discord in democratic societies. It shapes domestic and international public opinion blatantly through media, military experts, and political parties. China’s concept of comprehensive national power (which by itself has no measurable index) is a prime example of shaping public opinion to make us believe that that the Chinese are ‘Ten Feet Tall’ and invincible. Their videos of their firing exercises, news of scientific discoveries and new weapon systems etc are part of this effort. China will also attempt to stoke insurgencies and mount covert operations through this domain. The communist propaganda machinery is a lethal tool in this domain.
Legal. Presently, China is busy building a narrative through research and publications about the pre Buddhist Zhang Zhung kingdom to establish its legality on Tibet. As an extension, it will be the legal basis to support its manufactured claim on Arunachal Pradesh as South Tibet. China has also enacted border laws and built villages along the LAC to establish its legal status and actions along the LAC. It has also started building a narrative of being a victim in the Yangtse faceoff. At every instance and place whether it is on the LAC or elsewhere China will always establish a legal basis for its actions.
Influence Operations. Chinese narratives are being built through pliant politicians, media, and officials. Think tanks, academic institutions, workers unions, industry, and even government is being penetrated to influence thought and decision. China will continuously exploit Indian plurality and fissures in the political and bureaucratic firmaments. China will ensure that either a wrong decision or one that favour’s it is taken. It will also endeavour to shape international opinion so that India is seen in poor light. This is a constant.
Traditional Domains : Energy, Economy, Diplomacy and Politics
Energy. China and India are both energy deficient and will be at loggerheads in seeking additional sources of energy. China will endeavour to block and deny access to new energy sources to India. Further, China will constantly strive to ensure its own uninterrupted energy flows. This ties in with Sino Indian competitive behaviour in the maritime domain.
Economy. There is a heavy trade imbalance in China’s favour which it will exploit to control Indian political behaviour. China will not allow India an access to its markets beyond a point. It will also do everything in its capacity to put obstacles in India’s growth story and divert investment away. At some point of time China will weaponize its hold over inputs to India’s industry.
Diplomacy. China will do everything in its power to block reforms of the security council or give India a permanent seat on it. It will also thwart India’s entry into the Nuclear Suppliers group to deny access to nuclear raw material. Chinese wolf warrior diplomacy towards India will be evident in all bilateral and multilateral forums. Pakistan will be used as a catspaw in all diplomatic fora. It will aid and abet Pakistan in international relations. It will also block Indian efforts to designate terrorists as they should be. The Azhar Masood case is just one example.
Politics. China will wage a political war to nominate the next Dalai Lama of its choice. It will extend full political support to Pakistan. It will also propagate its political influence in our neighbours. Wherever it can support an authoritarian system or put in place a communist regime it will. China will coerce Bhutan to wean it away from India. It will also railroad Sri Lanka to convert Hambantota into a naval base. China will also endeavour to sever the traditional linkages India has had with the Middle East. It will subtly use Russia to drive wedges in the Indo US strategic partnership.
Health Domain
China has weaponized health throughout the pandemic. Even at present, when on the receiving end of the pandemic it has not allowed Indian anti-viral medicines to be sold in the open market in China. As India emerges as a leader in the global anti-pandemic effort, China will leave no stone unturned to wage a war in this new domain.
Summary
Time are changing. The futures of China and India are not what they were earlier. As India rises, it needs to continuously face a multidomain war, not because its rival is rising but because of the opposite. As China stagnates, as it will, its ambitious leader who finds that his place in the geopolitical sun is being overshadowed will be prone to take more geopolitical risks. That being so, we must expect more Yangtse like incidents appearing on our horizon in different domains either simultaneously or part of an orchestrated campaign. In this article I have made an effort to identify the issues in each domain which are of concern to us. There would be more issues than what I have laid out and more will come up in the future. If we are to identify the next Yangtze, it will do us well to create bench marks in each issue in each domain. These bench marks will help us. Firstly they will enable us to discern the shape, size, location and timing of the next Yangtse and in which domain it will manifest. Secondly, it will also help us evolve a game plan to mount a riposte. Yes. I am talking of a riposte and not a simple block or a counter. Did someone not say that offense is the best form of defense? It is time to switch tracks.
Refs :-
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1708.html
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas-dangerous-declinehttps://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA1496-1.html
Gunners Shot 
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