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UNDISSUASIVE LEADERSHIP, UNDETERRED CHINA BY LT GEN P R SHANKAR (R)

Also published @ https://thedailyguardian.com/dealing-with-dragon-effectively/ 

and 

https://cenjows.in/article-detail?id=387


This article mirrors historical cracks which promise to be repeating themselves in future. It is not directed at any individual, appointment or political party. 

 

Undissuasive

In 1971 India was a poor country with strong Armed Forces. It halved Pakistan, created  Bangladesh and cocked a snook at USA. Seventh Fleet threatening to intervene in Pakistan’s favour was taken in stride. In 2020 India is a rich country. Despite having large, internationally respected, well trained and battle hardened Armed Forces our territorial integrity is at stake. Our ill equipped forces have not been able to dissuade either China from unilaterally altering status quo at the LAC or Pakistan from interfering in our internal affairs with impunity for decades. Our dissuasive ability is obviously low. Leveraging China out entails great cost and risk in case dialogue fails. This situation should never have arisen. 

When it is ‘business as usual’ territorial integrity of the nation seems like ‘cry wolf’. When the Chinese are at our doorstep, it is easily understood The territorial integrity of the nation is the responsibility of the politico-military leadership. The bureaucracy  executes their  mandates to defend the nation. This is true of any democracy but ours. Clausewitz said that ‘war is politics by other means’.  Mao said ‘war is politics with bloodshed and politics is war without bloodshed’. Both never mentioned bureaucracies in-between! In authoritarian regimes like China and Pakistan, there is politico military fusion. The bureaucracy merely executes or is executed. However in India a unique troika of political, military and bureaucratic leadership manages military affairs. This flawed leadership structure is costing India dearly. 

                             

India is facing huge Disruption in Military Affairs. This disruption has ideological and technological components. The Pakistani ideology of radical Islam and the hard core communist Chinese ideology have disrupted military affairs at one level.  Disruptive technologies applied differentially by each of them have disrupted military affairs at another level. China and Pakistan have repeatedly demonstrated convergence of ideology  and technology into synthesised disruptions. Collusive  multidomain warfare through  massive asymmetrical aggression – in J&K,  hinterland, along the LOC and LAC has been the norm. Our  conventional capability devoid of ideology and weakened by perennial shortcomings has been side-lined without answers. India’s leadership troika needs rethinking. Why have we landed here?

 


Political Leadership

Elected political representatives are responsible to defend the nation. They must ensure that the politico-military institutions, work concertedly to defend the nation. When such  concert happened between Indira Gandhi and Sam Bahadur in 1971,  India had its greatest strategic victory. Will it happen in the present juncture?  Our PM and RM showed unprecedented courage to make their stands on the frontlines. It is encouraging. However the jury is still out. We’ve had two defence ministers (George Fernandez and Manohar Parrikar) who had hands on control over the military apparatus. They made a difference. The rest simply  abdicated and outsourced their responsibility to the bureaucracy.  As a result Indian military has weakened. 

On 06 Dec 2019 I wrote – ‘India is entrapped in a strange ‘Stability – Instability’ predicament. The Political hierarchy believes that our nuclear, space and missile programs will provide us with security and ‘Stability’. However, there is an increasing ‘Instability’ due to our inability to equip our Armed Forces optimally’. I never expected to be proven so fast. Our political leadership , has largely stayed away from the nuts and bolts of building military capability. Whether it is lack of knowledge or awe , our parliamentary leaders have kept military matters at arm’s length. When they have reached out it is often to dip their hand in the till.   

India cannot spend on its military when it cannot feed its poor. A strong economy  offsets a strong military. Economic power is primary and military power secondary. These lopsided notions resulted in our armed forces being poorly funded, ill equipped and underprepared. Economic rise and decline are transients. Military  necessity of defending nations is constant. In a toxic and predatory nuclear neighbourhood Indian military demands will continually grow. In the 60s and 70s we realised this and  funded our military  adequately despite other hardships. Somehow our leadership lost it thereafter. When Prime Ministers keep postponing scheduled meetings with Service Chiefs due to other pressing economic and diplomatic matters – it is back to 1962 – like diplomacy trying to supplant military capability.  A cancerous paradigm.        

1971 was not won on India’s geopolitical capability alone. The Indo-USSR pact just prior to the war tipped the balance. Thereafter,  our pursuit of strategic independence and non-alignment without attendant capability development hit an air pocket.  George Fernandes,  as a defence minister, identified China not as an adversary or threat but categorically as the ‘Enemy No 1’.  Yet successive political leaderships chose to appease China and tolerate Pakistan without building own capability or entering into balancing relationships / alliances / pacts. The result is evident.

Since  independence, our political leadership has allowed  India’s publicly funded, defence industrial and research complex to grow into self-serving silos. Treating these as sacred cows despite calcified underperformance has cost us dearly.  It is indeed ludicrous to even contemplate politically motivated strikes and unions in these sectors. However we have witnessed them. Politically we have not been able to make these institutions either perform or reform them. Thank god we are now thinking of corporatisation of OFB.    

 

Bureaucratic Leadership

 

The intelligent  bureaucrat was to be the conduit between earthy politicians and sophisticated military brass. Utopian. The canny bureaucrat kept them apart and usurped power. In this process  civilian control over the military was subverted. Political  control was converted into bureaucratic control. Military affairs have been piloted as per bureaucratic discretion through a created ‘System’ often ignoring operational expediency. It enables the bureaucratic leadership to remain  facelessness. This ’Systemic’ anonymity enables lack of accountability or fixing responsibility when the chips are down. 

The bureaucratic leadership is risk averse and goes by the book. The  emphasis, therefore  has been on book strengthening.  Hence changing procurement procedures has been a higher priority than capability enhancement. Two-bit foreigners talk of ‘a moribund, process bound, bureaucratic defence acquisition system which constantly under delivers on outcomes’. It  is  personally frustrating when our best and brightest which form the IAS  fail to deliver for India. My personal experience is that when they are committed to a cause and are driven by the politico-military necessity they deliver outstanding and stupendous results. Why not normally?

The military is a very specialised and niche field. It needs knowledge beyond the ordinary to synthesise  varied  fields to achieve desired outcomes. It demands domain knowledge which the bureaucratic leadership don’t have. Further, institutional knowledge is ignored at the altar of expediency. When leadership operates from lack of knowledge it invariably takes wrong decisions. If that leadership persists with its ignorance in a multidomain scenario, disaster is round the corner. That is our experience. 

Britishers invented the art of divide and rule.  Our bureaucratic steel frame, a descendant of the empire, learnt this art well. The propagation and maintenance of mutually exclusive military silos is an artistic outcome.  As a result our vast defence research and industrial complex capable of powering our military  is heavily underperforming. In China, all state owned enterprises were called ‘Rust Buckets’ at the turn of the century. Today they are powering China to superpower status and dominating every field of Chinese activity.  Our publicly funded defence establishment, spearheaded by the bureaucracy needs considerable introspection. Consistent resistance to reform or perform has weakened India’s defence capability.        

Very distressingly those who are supposed to support the military; especially those in the field of research, production and quality assurance think they know better than the military and have been giving it prescriptions; fully supported by bureaucratic processes.  It has denuded national capability to defend itself. The manifestation of this ‘know-all’ thought process has surfaced at Finger 4 on Pangong Tso.   

Military Leadership

Indian military leadership needs a geopolitical vision and awareness of the domestic political landscape while remaining  apolitical. It is the last bastion of the nation and needs to keep politics at arm’s length. What we have witnessed is that Armed Forces leadership exhibiting political aspirations of individual nature leading to political  compromises. This trend is  outrightly dangerous for the fabric of the nation. 

The  military leadership has been unable to tune in with the political masters professionally. Whenever this tuning has happened positively the outcomes have been favourable. In most cases this has not happened. Their inability to convey to the nation and its leaders the dangers of  confronting enemies with grave deficiencies is consistent. The inability to assert itself with or bypass the proxy bureaucratic leadership has compounded issues.  

India’s military leadership is wracked by interservice dissonance. The joint service ethos to think for the common good of the nation was plainly missing. Hopefully the CDS will rectify it. There are also serious intra service divisions. The Army sets the best example of divisions within – General Cadre / Non-General Cadre, Command / Staff, Combat Arms/Combat Support Arms/ Services….Armour/ Artillery/Infantry…..Rajput/Gorkha/Guards etc. A fractured, brahmanical and mandalised system ensures that the cream is denied to the nation. The worst have a fair chance of becoming top leaders. Structures which make incompetents into Generals puts national security at stake. There are equivalent issues with other Services. This core issue will not be rectified from within. It needs outside intervention.  

Our Armed Forces are manpower intensive. Sure you need boots on the ground. These boots need enhancement with ISR, Firepower, Mobility and Protection. Most importantly they need  offensive orientation. Our massive defensive capability  has not deterred China. That is proven. The answer to offensive capability does not lie in raising another manpower intensive Mountain Strike Corps. It lies in reassessing threats, restructuring forces, rebalancing them and reforming mindsets. It lies in reducing mass and increasing velocity.   Kinetic Energy then increases by a square of the increased velocity.  Leadership in Multidomain Ops needs a different approach. It also needs the Government to help the Armed Forces in shedding the bulk or financing it.        

The Military leadership has not been able to get the best out of the existing system.  Sitting  aloof and expecting  others to come up with goods will not work. They  must acquire skills and capabilities to ingest disruptive technologies,  head projects in DRDO, operate factories and run the MOD system on their terms. Only then can they demand structural reform. They often hit a road block on one issue – lack of knowledge. If you do not know what you want how do you expect others to give it to you?  The military must roll up its sleeves and get its hands dirty on the floor. There is no other choice.    

Conclusion

The current military, bureaucratic and political leaders might feel indignant at my bluntness. The FM says the current situation is the gravest since 1962. It could not have developed if the leadership was ok. The  flurry of emergency imports,  delegating additional financial powers, sanctioning new schemes and invoking fast track procedures whenever the enemy is at the gates further vindicates my arguments.

However let us think positively. If a suboptimal system can stymie Chinese aggression in its tracks what can a rebalanced and synergised leadership achieve? Good leadership, is the fundamental to any progress. In any case a thriving Military, Industrial and Research system  are our tickets to strategic independence,  guaranteed territorial integrity, kickstarting our economy and  improving social factors. This crisis presents an opportunity to permanently turn tables. I am sure the current leadership realises this. I am confident that they will grab this historic chance. When that is done – watch out China. Otherwise. Get ready for more Salami Slicing. 

14 responses to “UNDISSUASIVE LEADERSHIP, UNDETERRED CHINA BY LT GEN P R SHANKAR (R)”

  1. Incisive as always. Both mil and political leaderdhip should listen.

  2. A frank and Blunt article..need of the day.. nothing can be expected from the politico bureaucracy nexus, the present state of affairs suit them and they shall not upset the comfort zone..the cleansing has to commence within the Services, inter or intra..the role of the Commanding Officers is very critical and his moral uprightness and commitment is the key to change

  3. Ravi…..rightly brought out the Achilles heel is the incompetent bureaucracy……either it has to retold it's job or shown the door…. decision making time

  4. How I wish our serving Generals had the “spunk” to address these weaknesses. They are so busy hacking competition from outside their turf, and playing to the gallery with their own imagined vote-bank, that it becomes habitual and essential for their survival. The organization, The Army, gets lost in this milieu of variegated allegiances, and ultimately collective professionalism and organizational growth suffer. The policy makers by now are trans-generational cripples when it comes to constructive thought. And yet, its only they who can set the ball rolling and keep it rolling … is it possible ? Is it possible in a political environment where the military has become a “political tool” of a different kind ?

  5. The most balanced, unbiased and analytical piece on the subject that one has come across. It’s an eye opener for our political, military and bureaucratic policy makers. It also shows a meaningful direction for our numerous think tanks and so called strategists to focus on instead of trying to be satellite image interpreters and lowering themselves to politically leaned opinion makers. It’s so refreshing to find such a professional holistic analysis. We need a great deal of cleaning up. Every point conveyed by the author is dot on and worthy of follow up. While our individual services continue to retain great deal of their intrinsic strength, our threat analysis, force structures and capability building process have remained outdated and stayed on where they were decades ago. It is Time to roll up our sleeves and get into The muddy Waters to clean up as so eloquently brought out by the author. An outstanding piece.

  6. A Clarion Call to the national leadership and the beaurocracy…Reform if you wish to lead the nation to greater heights or Perish !Harbhajnik

  7. No doubt, the need of hour calls for relook at neumorous loose end for re- evaluating defences forces status verses beurocratic dominance for the country sake. Though it seems the wheel has been set for rolling but the time shall tell the outcome, God Bless the country policy makers & decision makers with true sense of patriotism.

  8. Undoubtedly hands on and hard hitting. I am experiencing the same. we are not even on the peripheral horizons of decision making partly owing to own limitations which the article eluded to ..knowledge and prep at geostrategic level.

  9. a long bold article. but this will not make any difference to the ailing system. The rotten system needs amputation at places immediately. We are standing on a hot plate. it is a question of time before we fall into the stove and get destroyed.

  10. Why is defence secretary responsible for defence of India? Instead defence minister should be responsible.This is essential.

  11. Inspite of 1962 debacle the political ,bureaucratic and military leadership never understood the gravity of the situation. That's it.

  12. A good article I wish somebody in authority and power like PM/RM read it seriously and act. The RM must have direct interaction with three chiefs if def forces have to do well in war, CDS or no CDS. He should be only a coordinator, he can't be three in one since all three are specialist in their own field and shoulders a specialised responsibility.

  13. We have the finest arm chair strategists in our country but there is no one to take note of their thoughts. Thoughts range from DMA / RMA to making the RM responsible for the defence of the country and not the Def Secretary. Reference to 1971 operations and the strategic alliances which followed are well documented also for everyone to see. Do these have any impact on the powers that be ?The problem is not outside the services but in house. We can be credited with creation of numerous groups within the Arms which promote mediocrity. Trust our senior gunners to articulate their views in any forum. They are fine as long as they get their share of appointments.Concept of artillery support for future operations needs a rethink. Employment of artillery based on templates like MFDT is outdated. We need PGMs and more advanced ammunition not the way Kargil 99 was fought. Pentagon is talking of swarm technology of using drone assisted attacks which are far cheaper than 155 ammunition costing one lakh.My views on Gunners and concept of artillery support are spelt out in my Tryst With Dignity & Honour, under publication.

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