I was interviewed By Hojo Minoru of Jiji.com. This interview has been published in Japan @ https://www.jiji.com/jc/article?k=2024031100729&g=int  It has been translated into English through the  Google translator in the bottom. The interaction with Hojo Minoru which I recorded can be seen @ https://gunnersshot.com/2024/03/04/will-china-invade-taiwan-a-gunners-shot-interaction/

中国軍は見掛け倒し」　不正横行、ずさんな兵器管理―インド軍元中将インタビュー

2024年03月12日07時08分配信

　中国軍の動向を長年研究してきたラビ・シャンカル元インド陸軍中将が１１日までに時事通信のオンラインインタビューに応じた。習近平政権は同日閉幕の全国人民代表大会（全人代）で前年比７．２％増の今年の国防予算を決めるなど、軍拡を進めている。しかし、シャンカル氏は、中国軍で不正が横行し、兵器の管理もずさんだと指摘。「中国軍は見掛けよりもはるかに弱い」との見方を示した。発言要旨は次の通り。

「偽の戦闘力」摘発言及　汚職関連で問題視か―中国軍首脳

　―中国は今年も国防予算が大幅増となった。

　２０１９年と比べると１．４倍の急増だ。米国に匹敵する軍事力の獲得を目指し、宇宙・サイバー・人工知能（ＡＩ）など最先端技術の応用に熱心な習国家主席の意向が背景にある。しかし、中国軍の兵器は粗悪だ。不正や怠慢のせいで管理がずさんだからだ。制服組トップの張又侠・中央軍事委員会副主席は昨年８月、装備の管理を抜本的に改めるよう指示した。２２年８月に台湾周辺で行われた大規模演習で発射したミサイルには誤作動があったもようだ。パキスタンなどに輸出された中国製兵器もうまく作動しないことがあった。

　―昨夏以降、多数の中国軍高官が失脚した。

　装備品調達を巡る大規模な汚職が原因だ。失脚した高官は核兵器を扱うロケット軍などの重要部署に関わり、経験が豊富だ。後任選びの基準は、能力ではなく習氏に対する忠誠心だ。中国軍は見掛けよりもはるかに弱い。新しい兵器を使いこなすには知識と経験が必要だが、有能な人材が足りない。１９７９年以来、中国軍は本格的な実戦を経験しておらず、人事も能力重視ではないからだ。

　―台湾統一に意欲的な習氏が侵攻を命令する可能性は。

　台湾への上陸作戦は極めて難しい。事前の動きは衛星やドローンで察知される。ウクライナ侵攻は２年以上続いているが、ロシアは資源が多く持ちこたえている。中国は資源を輸入に頼っている。台湾侵攻が長期化すれば、中国経済への打撃は非常に大きい。経済が停滞している中、戦争を始めれば、共産党体制は崩壊するだろう。習氏が侵攻を決断することはないと思う。

　―習氏が情勢を見誤ることはないか。

　中国軍は台湾、南シナ海、日本、朝鮮半島、インドの各地域で連鎖的に戦争が起きることを恐れている。米国と連携する形で、インドが国境地帯で軍事活動を始めれば、中国はお手上げだ。中国は公表していないが、２０年にインドとの国境地帯で起きた衝突で中国側の死者はインド側よりもはるかに多かった。中国軍は戦意が乏しく、訓練も不十分だ。中国軍が近い将来に台湾に侵攻することは不可能だ。習氏も分かっているはずだ。

The Chinese military is shoddy” - Rampant fraud and sloppy weapons management - Interview with a former lieutenant general in the Indian army

Former Indian Army Lieutenant General Ravi Shankar, who has studied Chinese military movements for many years, gave an online interview to Jiji Press by the 11th. At the National People's Congress (National People's Congress), which ended on the same day, the Xi Jinping administration decided on this year's defense budget, an increase of 7.2% from the previous year, and is proceeding with military expansion. However, Shankar pointed out that corruption is rampant in the Chinese military and that the management of weapons is sloppy. ``The Chinese military is much weaker than it appears,'' he said. The summary of the speech is as follows.


China's military leader mentions exposure of "fake combat forces"; sees corruption-related issues

--China's defense budget has increased significantly this year as well.


This is a 1.4 times increase compared to 2019. This is due to the intention of President Xi, who is enthusiastic about applying cutting-edge technologies such as space, cyber, and artificial intelligence (AI) with the aim of acquiring military power comparable to that of the United States. However, the Chinese military's weapons are inferior. This is because of sloppy management due to fraud and negligence. In August last year, the head of the uniform organization, Zhang Machi, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, ordered a fundamental change in the management of equipment. There appears to have been a malfunction in the missile launched during a large-scale exercise near Taiwan in August 2022. Chinese-made weapons exported to Pakistan and other countries sometimes did not work properly.

-Since last summer, many senior Chinese military officials have been ousted.

The cause is massive corruption surrounding equipment procurement. The ousted high-ranking official has extensive experience having been involved in important departments such as the Rocket Force, which handles nuclear weapons. The criterion for selecting a successor is loyalty to Mr. Xi, not ability. The Chinese military is much weaker than it appears. Knowledge and experience are required to master new weapons, but there is a shortage of competent human resources. This is because the Chinese military has not experienced full-scale combat since 1979, and personnel personnel are not focused on ability.


-Is it possible that Mr. Xi, who is eager to unify Taiwan, will order an invasion?

Landing operations on Taiwan are extremely difficult. Advance movements can be detected by satellites and drones. The invasion of Ukraine has been going on for more than two years, but Russia has been able to hold out due to its many resources. China relies on imports for resources. If the invasion of Taiwan continues for a long time, the damage to China's economy will be huge. If we start a war while the economy is stagnant, the Communist Party system will collapse. I don't think Mr. Xi will decide to invade.

-Will Mr. Xi misjudge the situation?

The Chinese military fears a chain reaction of wars in Taiwan, the South China Sea, Japan, the Korean Peninsula, and India. If India, in coordination with the United States, begins military activities in its border areas, China will be at a loss. Although China does not make public information, the number of deaths on the Chinese side was far higher than on the Indian side in 2020 when clashes occurred along the border with India. The Chinese military lacks the will to fight and is poorly trained. It is impossible for the Chinese military to invade Taiwan in the near future. Mr. Xi should also know.