Chinese Vulnerability : A Discussion With Aadi

China is showing a vulnerability not seen in the recent past. Aadi and I discuss the factors driving the vulnerability.

3 responses to “Chinese Vulnerability : A Discussion With Aadi”


  2. Hi General

    Want to review an exchange we had back in Feb as I have learnt something more since.

    At 38:00 I asked about the IMF projection for China in 2023 as 5% to which you said they must have been bribed implying such a figure was not credible. Prior to my question, someone asked about the public perception implying what you are saying is at variance from what we read in the media. This will be the scene setter.

    About three weeks later Lei tackles the same subject in her talk

    You use Chinese sources, she uses Chinese language sources. The interesting part is how both of you reach the same conclusions. She mentions when it comes to the economy the Chinese are a little more open than politics. I think it’s harder to lie on this topic so the CCP has to relent a bit otherwise there will be unrest. This means the Chinese media is somewhat reliable on this subject.

    What about Western media and institutions? here is where the problem lies.

    She says it is just not credible for growth in 2023 to be 5% rather she thinks the correct figure should be -2%. A contraction. Given all the problems China has been through. So why is the IMF saying 5%?

    If the IMF depends on internal govt data for their reports then they will want to retain this access. The same applies to any academic who publishes on China. It also applies to Western media which have internal govt sources to give them tips which become scoops. So the CCP in effect remote controls what the Western media, even institutions say about China. They have been playing them for decades with GDP growth and most take for granted there will always be growth and nobody questions.

    She says all it takes is for one media house to say China’s growth in 2023 will be -2% but they are afraid to speak truth to power. The analysts are trained have the resources and sure know but their editors won’t allow them to say it.

    Chinese media is more reliable and likely a better indicator of what is really happening in China’s economy than Western media is the finding.

    How long for? On Jan 01 2023, XJP issued a directive to the official media, Economic Daily to ‘tell good stories about China’s development in the new era’ and ‘sing loudly the bright stories of China’s economy’

    The amazing thing is the Western media soon followed this directive. The media of the free West is doing what XJP wants. We can’t read Chinese and most will follow what Western media says about China and these articles are syndicated.

    There are very few people like you challenging the CCP’s narratives on the basis of what the Chinese are saying domestically.


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: