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I agree with you completely sir. China will weigh things very carefully before it makes any move on Taiwan. The USN continues its FONOPs in both the SCS as well as in the Taiwan Straits regardless of China’s protests. The last such FONOP was conducted by the USN 7th Fleet ship near the disputed Paracel islands in end Nov last year.
All attempts at salami slicing in the waters off Taiwan would not go uncontested by the US & its allies. Therein lies the danger of accidental escalation that could lead to a full spectrum war involving multiple countries against China.