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SUPERPOWERS – PAST, PRESENT AND CHINA BY | LT GEN P R SHANKAR (R)

Think Tank IndiaCENTRE FOR JOINT WARFARE STUDIES

SUPERPOWERS – PAST, PRESENT AND CHINA

BY | LT GEN P R SHANKAR, PVSM, AVSM, VSM (RETD) 

Published@ https://thedailyguardian.com/world-superpowers-and-china/@https://cenjows.in/article-detail?id=366 and 

Civilizations, Empires and Superpowers.  We have seen many civilizations-Greek, Persian, Chinese, Indus Valley, Mesopotamian, Egyptian, Roman, Islamic, Mayan, Inca and more. Similarly, many great empires have risen and fallen- the Ottoman, Persian, Spanish, Hapsburgs, Arab, Mauryan, Mughal, the Tang Dynasty. However, the world has seen only five superpowers.  Mongol and Roman empires in ancient times. The British Empire, the USSR and the USA in modern times.

What is A Superpower? The term is contextually used with different meanings. Holistically, superpowers possesses military, technological and economic might, vastly superior to others. They haveglobal capacities to steer, influence and shape events. Their power projection could be simultaneous in multiple locations. The power could be economic, military, technological or “soft” (diplomatic, political and cultural). A superpower should be able to dominate other countries and ward off challenges. It cannot be ignored on the world stage. Without its cooperation no world problem can be solved.

The Emerging Competition. USA is striving to retain superpower status. China is striving to surpass USA. The Pandemic has parachuted into this competitiontothrowa spanner in the works. In this context it is necessary to evaluate if China can realize its ambitions? What are the threats and opportunities? These questions will trouble us; particularly in India.  An overview of superpowers – past and present indicates where China is heading.  

Past Superpowers

The Roman Empire. It was the first superpower. It was founded in 27 BC and lasted five centuries (probably the longest superpower). Illustrious emperors/ dictators like Caesar, Augustus, Trajan, Hadrian, Antonius Pius and Marcus Aurelius’ and decadent ones like Nero, Caligula and Tiberius ruled it. It held sway over the Middle East and Europe, ruling most major population centres and contemporary civilizations including Greece, Egypt, the Levant, Carthage, Anatolia and Italy. Its footprint covered over 60 million people. Roman legions, famed for military dominance, laid the foundations of the Empire. Persia, the only real competitor of the time, was repeatedly ravaged. The Roman Empire was distinguished for many intellectual accomplishments -Law, City Planning, Architecture and Roads. Roads promoted commerce, agriculture, mail delivery, pedestrian traffic, and military movements. City planning was all about hygiene with plumbing, sewage disposal, dams, and aqueducts. Roman architecture is still famed for its lavishness and planning. The period is also significant for the birth of two major religions – Christianity and Islam. One within the Roman Empire and other on its periphery.  Rome ultimately fell due to internal factors like civil war and economic depredations.

The Mongol EmpireIt was the world’s largest land empire. Just a million Mongols conquered vastly larger populations and empires.It was not an unitary empire as normallyenvisaged but a vast agglomeration of widely different territories held together by military domination. Military prowess propelled it to superpower status. Its all-conquering military machine was based on outstanding tactics, mobility, utilization of the technology of the conquered peoples and logistics. As each state along the Silk Road was conquered, the empire expanded.  The Silk Road was the economic backbone of the Mongols.  From 1206 till about 1294, Genghis Khan and his heirs ruled an empire that included most of Eurasia, much of the Middle East, parts of Eastern Europe, China and Russia. At its peak it stretched from the Danube to the Sea of Japan and from the Arctic to Camboja, covering over 22% of the Earth’s land area. It held sway over 100 million people. It is often referred to as the”Mongol World Empire”.                   

The British Empire. The first modern day Superpower where economic, military and soft power were equal constituents. It was founded on colonies and trading posts established in the16th/17th centuries. The British Empire comprised the dominions, colonies, protectorates, mandates, and other territories ruled or administered by UK. Itspolitical, linguistic and cultural legacy still endures through the Commonwealth.  It was the largest empire and foremost global power for over a century. In 1922, it controlled 1/4th the world’s populationover1/4th of Earth’s landmass. In the empire there was sunlight throughout at some place or the other. That is why the “sun never set” in the British Empire. It had the largest military of all times. Its military power was based on a powerful Navy with which it could strike and control strategic chokepoints—Suez, Malacca, Aden, Hormuz, Gibraltar. It enabled unfettered trade and made UK enormously wealthy. In 1870, it had the largest percentage of world GDP (35.9%).  In 1938, it still had the second largest GDP after the USA. It was insulated and unassailable by continental powers with the Atlantic on one side and the English Channel on the other. WW1 heralded the collapse of the British Empire. It was completed by WW2.   

The Soviet Union. USSR was the briefest superpower. It was founded on the erstwhile Russian Empire. It rose to be a superpower at the end of the WW2. It disintegrated due to the Cold War with USA. The intervening four decades witnessed global bipolarity whose poles were capitalism and communism. USSR was huge and difficult to knock out as Napoleon and Hitler discovered. The expansive resource-rich landmass fulfilled Mackinder’s Heartland Theory – whoever controlled the Eurasian heart land could control Eurasia and thus the world. It rivalled the USA militarily, technologically, economically and in soft power. Communism, its defining ideology, propelled it to superpower status and ultimately caused its demise. Communist ideology propagated by USSR was global and included China also. Russia, its successor state inherited USSRs global influence.  Russia is still a power but falls short of being a superpower since it could not reinvent itself as USA has repeatedly done.    

Present Superpower

USA is the current superpower. It has a huge population, an enormous continental-sized resource-rich territory located on two oceans.  It has been unassailable barring two brief times – Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour and 9/11 strikes on Twin Towers. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, it has enjoyed conventional military dominance in air, sea or land. Its Navy can control all the world’s major sea routes and choke points. It operates 516 military installations in 41 countries around the world, including 42 that are large or medium-size bases. It has extensive alliances including the NATO, Anzus Pact, bilateral military agreements with Japan and South Korea, and the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing alliance between the USA, the UK, Australia, Canada and New Zealand.  Economically it is very strong and is home to a significant proportion of the world’s GDP. Its currency is the reserve currency of the world. It has the trust of most rich and affluent nations. That makes its economic power non-finite and non-territorial. USA has leveraged technology in every walk of life as a currency of power. Its forays into space, nuclear and information spaces are pioneering. Technology turned it from an energy neutral to an energy surplus nation. It wields enormous soft power which it projects it through itsculture, educational system, political affiliations, aid programs, overseas bases, Hollywood and its huge network of MNCs.  Most importantly it has been able to reinvent itself after every setback to emerge stronger: be it economic setbacks like depression of the 1930s or the global meltdown of 2008 or military setbacks like the Pearl Harbour or Twin Tower attacks. It has been able to ward off competition from USSR and emerge bigger. It is currently in a debilitated state economically due to the corona virus and is under severe threat from China. Will it stage a recovery as it has always done?  One thing for sure even if does stage a recovery, its economic dominance would have eroded. The other thing for sure is that its Military, Diplomacy and Technology power are still intact. These could leverage its economy back to dominance. Do not count it out. 

China

China’s ambition is to be the undisputed No1 Superpower. The Chinese were expected to overtake USA as the world No1 power by 2050. However Corona Virus has put in sharp focusa number of issues. Let us take see them.

China has an unfavourable Military Geography – continental size, poor resources, assailablefrom all directions (The Great Wall is testimony) with constricted ocean access. Its military must defend the nation, prop the Party up, parry competitors and control international choke points and gates. China needs an outsized military with international presence. The past fewmonths revealed two things. One. Chinese military power has serious limitations. It does not have superpower capabilities. Two. Core military power still counts to become a superpower. Power flows from the barrel of a gun. Did Mao not say that?  India has stopped it in its tracks in Ladakh and USA has bottled it in South China Sea.  All its military gambits have strategically failed. Its reach lies exposed. Outposts are vulnerable. Internal issues like Xinjiang, Tibet, Hong Kong and Taiwan are termites. Its military needs greater teeth to be a superpower. Bridging the chasm demands huge investment.

China is betting on its economy to attain Superpower Status. Despite a high GDP, per-capita GDP is low. Population is aging. The state must guarantee prosperity to people in return for sacrificed freedoms. All superpower populations had affluent lifestyles (barring USSR which collapsed). China needs huge revenues internally. BRI is itsgambit to control international trade, expandthe economic footprint, develop dependencies and achieve world domination.  It is a mega combination of USA’s foreign aid programs, the Mongol Empire’s Silk Route and the British Empire model of establishing trading posts prior to colonization. However, the Virus has paralysed the BRIand exposed its noxious underbelly- usurious loans,  debt traps, one sided projects et al. Overall being a superpower is an expensive business with huge external expenditure. The economy will have to generate lot of cash. In the current environment of relocation of manufacturing, unacceptability of Chinese financial systems, longevity of the Virus and the overall geopolitical developments, there are severe headwinds ahead.

To adjudicate on international matters China needs to generate trust. However, it is emerging as the root cause in many disputes. Its reputation on IPR theft and technology transfer is horrendous. China displays selfishness with no concept of ‘Global Commons’. It has blatantly repudiated international treaties, law and a rules based order (South China Sea and in Hong Kong) and not lived up to promises. More than alienation it has generated hate in many countries.

Overall, when one sees it in the backdrop of history, China doesnot have the grandeur of Romans, the military machine of the Mongols, the ideology of USSR, the Navy of the British or the unassailable expanse and contribution to mankind of USA. They might be aiming to better everyone. They might achieve many things but seem unable to scale their symbol of pride- The Great Wall of China. It has fostered psychological isolation- Mao’sself-imposed internationalisolation, the current regime’s Great Internet and Information Firewall, diplomatically created geopolitical isolation and the Han exclusion of other Chinese ethnicities. A psychologically isolated superpower without allies or friends (historically) is difficult to imagine.

China must have phenomenal economic growth to become a superpower. It appears to be recovering well despite the Pandemic. However it is early days. The huge variables are the Virus, Unprecedented floods in its core industrial belt, drought and food shortages, job losses due to industry closures, global determination in decoupling/relocation and geopolitical isolation – all reported by Chinese media. The chances of economic dominance do not look bright.

Net Outcomes

It would be fair to say that the days of an unipolar world are over. We are entering a world of multipolarity. USA will be a large pole which will strive to recover its economic mojo while keeping everything else intact. China might be a large economic pole striving for everything else. There will be budding poles like EU, India, Japan and ASEAN.  All one can say – the Global Pivot is to the East and the competition is ON!


5 responses to “SUPERPOWERS – PAST, PRESENT AND CHINA BY | LT GEN P R SHANKAR (R)”

  1. Sir,An insightful analysis as ever.Best Regards Sanjeev Chopra

  2. Sir,It will be advantageous to India to become an ally of USA. It will be able to establish its independent identity and perhaps in future become a superpower if it can sort out its inner conflicts.

  3. A well researched paper.Well analysed

  4. A very insightful article, worth storing.A few thoughts on the points you made (I must admit my perspectives are economic driven and there will certainly be more perspectives that I'm unaware of):> (US) Economically it is very strong and is home to a significant proportion of the world’s GDP> It is currently in a debilitated state economicallyand> Will it stage a recovery as it has always done? One thing for sure even if does stage a recovery, its economic dominance would have eroded.there are some intrinsic weaknesses to the US economically. Trends show that the US (and by extension the rest of the world) are on the down-slope of a Kondratiev Curve[1]. Ray Dalio describes this pretty well in his video [2]. There are some indications that the Roman empire collapsed on the downward slope of such a curve (just wondering if there are larger economic cycles – the Dark ages might imply that). Anyway…So the question is – whether the US can (and will) come out of the current global depression or will it sink into obscurity like all the other “empires”. We (in India) have had many, many empires come and go – the Cholas, the Mauryas, Ashokan… I've been a student of history to attempt to answer this one question – Why do empires collapse[3]? You have made some very good points, thank you – I found them instructive.Re: China.Your analysis has been very instructive. A few additions – we know that China's rise has been fuelled by:- an external market on which it has minimal control. The internal market is still not strong enough (can that be exploited?). In contrast the US market is primarily internal and is the bedrock of their power (BTW, the slowing down of their internal market is the one reason why they are not doing well).- A Debt fueled economy (their debt/equity ratio is pretty high).- Massive over investments to drop costs and capture market at the cost of ROI. This is short termism and assumes everything will grow well (shades of Ray Dalio's economic recovery) over time – but then life is not a straight line.- Investments in areas that are non-economic (eg. real-estate: Ordos is an example, the stock market).In essence: I've been wondering if China's recent bellicosity is something taken out of Sun Tsu: “Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak.”:-) And finally, minor quibble. respectfully, a spell check would have been nice.Hoping this helps. Thank you again for putting out your thoughts.[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kondratiev_wave%5B2%5D https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sMRRz1J9RkI%5B3%5D Jared Diamond's thesis is that collapse is usually due to environmental reasons – and that might be so. Black swans happen. But I think there's more, much more.

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