Tag: #CHINA
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On The Tsukasa Jonen Channel
Tsukasa Jonen is a popular economic commentator in Japan. He approached me for an interaction on China and specifically the PLA. The interaction is in English barring the introduction and conclusion.
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China’s Perception of India
This is a must see for any one who wants to understand China better. See it in splits…but see it. This conversation between Lt Gen Vinod Bhatia (R) , Brig Arun Sahgal (R) and self on China’s perceptions of India encompassed the traditional as well as the latest thinking in China. As India rises, there…
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Bhutan : Chinese Designs And Indian Pushback
In this video we have highlighted the strategic importance of the PMs visit to Bhutan and how this is part of the overall pushback against China. We have also explained in detail why China is interested in Bhutan, which offers two tactical pathways to Chinese Strategic aims to inflict a psychological and military defeat on…
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Five Developments Rattling China
Very often we discuss that China does this..China does that. Most times we do not realise that as India is rising it is sending its own messages constantly. Lt Gen Ata Hasnain and I highlight five recent developments which seem to have rattled China a bit. It started with his article in the New Indian…
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China’s Predatory Behaviour
China is facing an economic, demographic and an environmental crisis. However the national thrust is on nationalism, militarisation and technology as Xi believes China’s time has come. The result is that its predatory activities – diplomatically and geopolitically have only increased. This will continue as China declines further and will be a major problem for…
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Chinese Perceptions of India By Lt Gen P R Shankar (R)
India’s revocation of Article 370 and promulgating Ladakh as a Union Territory has raised concern and reinforced views of ulterior Indian designs on China. Relations between India and China are rapidly changing. In the recent past there have been some articles from both China and India which highlight this change. In one strain, Chinese authors opine that…
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Thoughts on Defending Taiwan By P.R. Shankar
Published in the Taipei Times @ https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2024/03/16/2003814987 on 16 march 2024. It is well known that Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) ambition is to rejuvenate the Chinese nation by unification of Taiwan, either peacefully or by force. The peaceful option has virtually gone out of the window with the last presidential elections in Taiwan. Taiwanese,…
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Countering China – Pakistan Dynamics
Notwithstanding anything else, the Pak – China dynamics are only on the up . They have a common thread – contain India. The panel of Lt Gen SL Narasimhan(R), Lt Gen Satish Dua and Ms Tara Kartha were of the unanimous view that India must be prepared for a future in which these dynamics will…
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The Chinese Military is Shoddy
I was interviewed By Hojo Minoru of Jiji.com. This interview has been published in Japan @ https://www.jiji.com/jc/article?k=2024031100729&g=int It has been translated into English through the Google translator in the bottom. The interaction with Hojo Minoru which I recorded can be seen @ https://gunnersshot.com/2024/03/04/will-china-invade-taiwan-a-gunners-shot-interaction/ 中国軍は見掛け倒し」 不正横行、ずさんな兵器管理―インド軍元中将インタビュー 2024年03月12日07時08分配信 中国軍の動向を長年研究してきたラビ・シャンカル元インド陸軍中将が１１日までに時事通信のオンラインインタビューに応じた。習近平政権は同日閉幕の全国人民代表大会（全人代）で前年比７．２％増の今年の国防予算を決めるなど、軍拡を進めている。しかし、シャンカル氏は、中国軍で不正が横行し、兵器の管理もずさんだと指摘。「中国軍は見掛けよりもはるかに弱い」との見方を示した。発言要旨は次の通り。 「偽の戦闘力」摘発言及 汚職関連で問題視か―中国軍首脳 ―中国は今年も国防予算が大幅増となった。 ２０１９年と比べると１．４倍の急増だ。米国に匹敵する軍事力の獲得を目指し、宇宙・サイバー・人工知能（ＡＩ）など最先端技術の応用に熱心な習国家主席の意向が背景にある。しかし、中国軍の兵器は粗悪だ。不正や怠慢のせいで管理がずさんだからだ。制服組トップの張又侠・中央軍事委員会副主席は昨年８月、装備の管理を抜本的に改めるよう指示した。２２年８月に台湾周辺で行われた大規模演習で発射したミサイルには誤作動があったもようだ。パキスタンなどに輸出された中国製兵器もうまく作動しないことがあった。 ―昨夏以降、多数の中国軍高官が失脚した。 装備品調達を巡る大規模な汚職が原因だ。失脚した高官は核兵器を扱うロケット軍などの重要部署に関わり、経験が豊富だ。後任選びの基準は、能力ではなく習氏に対する忠誠心だ。中国軍は見掛けよりもはるかに弱い。新しい兵器を使いこなすには知識と経験が必要だが、有能な人材が足りない。１９７９年以来、中国軍は本格的な実戦を経験しておらず、人事も能力重視ではないからだ。 ―台湾統一に意欲的な習氏が侵攻を命令する可能性は。 台湾への上陸作戦は極めて難しい。事前の動きは衛星やドローンで察知される。ウクライナ侵攻は２年以上続いているが、ロシアは資源が多く持ちこたえている。中国は資源を輸入に頼っている。台湾侵攻が長期化すれば、中国経済への打撃は非常に大きい。経済が停滞している中、戦争を始めれば、共産党体制は崩壊するだろう。習氏が侵攻を決断することはないと思う。 ―習氏が情勢を見誤ることはないか。 中国軍は台湾、南シナ海、日本、朝鮮半島、インドの各地域で連鎖的に戦争が起きることを恐れている。米国と連携する形で、インドが国境地帯で軍事活動を始めれば、中国はお手上げだ。中国は公表していないが、２０年にインドとの国境地帯で起きた衝突で中国側の死者はインド側よりもはるかに多かった。中国軍は戦意が乏しく、訓練も不十分だ。中国軍が近い将来に台湾に侵攻することは不可能だ。習氏も分かっているはずだ。…
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OPEN HOUSE ON CHINA’S TWO SESSIONS
The deliberations of the Two Sessions in China are in an end run. the overall signals are not great. In this episode I have focussed on the PLA since Xi has been showing great interest in it. Needs a bit more analysis as China changes course. Early days. more to come.
Gunners Shot 