Category: TAIWAN CRISIS
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CHINA’S NEW STRATEGY OF SLOW STRANGULATION OF TAIWAN
China has come to realise a few issues. 1. Forceful reunification of Taiwan is beyond China 2.Peaceful reunification cannot be achieved, 3. Taiwan does not want any kind of Unification. 4. No possibility of unification in the next four years . Accordingly, its strategy has changed to law fare, gray zone activities, cognitive warfare and intimidation.…
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THE EMERGING SECURITY ARCHITECTURE IN EAST ASIA
Brig Arun Sahgal (R) outlines the contours of Chinese assertivity and threat as it manifests itself across East Asia. We discussed that the strategy of ambiguity practiced by USA against China also affects all East Asian nations. As a result all these countries are building capacities to defend themselves as also are getting into cooperative…
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Chinese Military Drills and The Island Too Far
The Chinese have carried out their naval and air drills around Taiwan for the thud time in a row. There is a pattern emerging in these drills. Will it lead to an attack or a blockade? I doubt. It is more of cognitive warfare in the best traditions of the huff and puff of the…
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China-Taiwan : What Next
Dr Christina Chen of INDSR gave a great assessment of the China-Taiwan situation from ground up. Significantly, she says that Taiwanese feel that China will not attack Taiwan in the near future but will take all measures to coerce and intimidate it. A very well articulated and informed view.
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China’s Invasion of Taiwan
Maj Gen Rajiv Narayanan (R) and I outline how the invasion of Taiwan can proceed or rather flounder given the state of PLA preparation at this point of time. It will bust many myths which people hold.
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Thoughts on Defending Taiwan By P.R. Shankar
Published in the Taipei Times @ https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2024/03/16/2003814987 on 16 march 2024. It is well known that Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) ambition is to rejuvenate the Chinese nation by unification of Taiwan, either peacefully or by force. The peaceful option has virtually gone out of the window with the last presidential elections in Taiwan. Taiwanese,…
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The Chinese Military is Shoddy
I was interviewed By Hojo Minoru of Jiji.com. This interview has been published in Japan @ https://www.jiji.com/jc/article?k=2024031100729&g=int It has been translated into English through the Google translator in the bottom. The interaction with Hojo Minoru which I recorded can be seen @ https://gunnersshot.com/2024/03/04/will-china-invade-taiwan-a-gunners-shot-interaction/ 中国軍は見掛け倒し」 不正横行、ずさんな兵器管理―インド軍元中将インタビュー 2024年03月12日07時08分配信 中国軍の動向を長年研究してきたラビ・シャンカル元インド陸軍中将が１１日までに時事通信のオンラインインタビューに応じた。習近平政権は同日閉幕の全国人民代表大会（全人代）で前年比７．２％増の今年の国防予算を決めるなど、軍拡を進めている。しかし、シャンカル氏は、中国軍で不正が横行し、兵器の管理もずさんだと指摘。「中国軍は見掛けよりもはるかに弱い」との見方を示した。発言要旨は次の通り。 「偽の戦闘力」摘発言及 汚職関連で問題視か―中国軍首脳 ―中国は今年も国防予算が大幅増となった。 ２０１９年と比べると１．４倍の急増だ。米国に匹敵する軍事力の獲得を目指し、宇宙・サイバー・人工知能（ＡＩ）など最先端技術の応用に熱心な習国家主席の意向が背景にある。しかし、中国軍の兵器は粗悪だ。不正や怠慢のせいで管理がずさんだからだ。制服組トップの張又侠・中央軍事委員会副主席は昨年８月、装備の管理を抜本的に改めるよう指示した。２２年８月に台湾周辺で行われた大規模演習で発射したミサイルには誤作動があったもようだ。パキスタンなどに輸出された中国製兵器もうまく作動しないことがあった。 ―昨夏以降、多数の中国軍高官が失脚した。 装備品調達を巡る大規模な汚職が原因だ。失脚した高官は核兵器を扱うロケット軍などの重要部署に関わり、経験が豊富だ。後任選びの基準は、能力ではなく習氏に対する忠誠心だ。中国軍は見掛けよりもはるかに弱い。新しい兵器を使いこなすには知識と経験が必要だが、有能な人材が足りない。１９７９年以来、中国軍は本格的な実戦を経験しておらず、人事も能力重視ではないからだ。 ―台湾統一に意欲的な習氏が侵攻を命令する可能性は。 台湾への上陸作戦は極めて難しい。事前の動きは衛星やドローンで察知される。ウクライナ侵攻は２年以上続いているが、ロシアは資源が多く持ちこたえている。中国は資源を輸入に頼っている。台湾侵攻が長期化すれば、中国経済への打撃は非常に大きい。経済が停滞している中、戦争を始めれば、共産党体制は崩壊するだろう。習氏が侵攻を決断することはないと思う。 ―習氏が情勢を見誤ることはないか。 中国軍は台湾、南シナ海、日本、朝鮮半島、インドの各地域で連鎖的に戦争が起きることを恐れている。米国と連携する形で、インドが国境地帯で軍事活動を始めれば、中国はお手上げだ。中国は公表していないが、２０年にインドとの国境地帯で起きた衝突で中国側の死者はインド側よりもはるかに多かった。中国軍は戦意が乏しく、訓練も不十分だ。中国軍が近い将来に台湾に侵攻することは不可能だ。習氏も分かっているはずだ。…
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Will China Invade Taiwan? A Gunners Shot Interaction
Hojo Minoru is an experienced Japanese reporter of Jiji World , a Japanese new agency. He has spent over six years in China till about 2021. He read my article China’s PLA Plagued By 6 ‘New’ Incapabilities That Could Cause Its Eventual Downfall: Ex-Indian General in Eurasian Times ( https://gunnersshot.com/2023/12/07/chinas-pla-plagued-by-6-new-incapabilities-that-could-cause-its-eventual-downfall-ex-indian-general/ ) and felt it was “concise…
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Future War in South China Sea
There is no doubt that the South China Sea is a hot spot which could escalate into a full blown conflict any time now. How this war will pan out is anybody’s guess, but the indications are clear. The almost daily incidents which are taking place in the South China Sea between China and Philippines…
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China Loses Taiwan Election
Maj Gen Rajiv Narayanan (R) and I had an informed discussion on the Taiwan presidential elections. Irrespective of which candidate won, China has lost it. The people of Taiwan have slapped China hard in what I would term as a victory for democracy over communism. However the story is not over since China has resumed…
Gunners Shot 