Category: China
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The Chinese Military is Shoddy
I was interviewed By Hojo Minoru of Jiji.com. This interview has been published in Japan @ https://www.jiji.com/jc/article?k=2024031100729&g=int It has been translated into English through the Google translator in the bottom. The interaction with Hojo Minoru which I recorded can be seen @ https://gunnersshot.com/2024/03/04/will-china-invade-taiwan-a-gunners-shot-interaction/ 中国軍は見掛け倒し」 不正横行、ずさんな兵器管理―インド軍元中将インタビュー 2024年03月12日07時08分配信 中国軍の動向を長年研究してきたラビ・シャンカル元インド陸軍中将が１１日までに時事通信のオンラインインタビューに応じた。習近平政権は同日閉幕の全国人民代表大会（全人代）で前年比７．２％増の今年の国防予算を決めるなど、軍拡を進めている。しかし、シャンカル氏は、中国軍で不正が横行し、兵器の管理もずさんだと指摘。「中国軍は見掛けよりもはるかに弱い」との見方を示した。発言要旨は次の通り。 「偽の戦闘力」摘発言及 汚職関連で問題視か―中国軍首脳 ―中国は今年も国防予算が大幅増となった。 ２０１９年と比べると１．４倍の急増だ。米国に匹敵する軍事力の獲得を目指し、宇宙・サイバー・人工知能（ＡＩ）など最先端技術の応用に熱心な習国家主席の意向が背景にある。しかし、中国軍の兵器は粗悪だ。不正や怠慢のせいで管理がずさんだからだ。制服組トップの張又侠・中央軍事委員会副主席は昨年８月、装備の管理を抜本的に改めるよう指示した。２２年８月に台湾周辺で行われた大規模演習で発射したミサイルには誤作動があったもようだ。パキスタンなどに輸出された中国製兵器もうまく作動しないことがあった。 ―昨夏以降、多数の中国軍高官が失脚した。 装備品調達を巡る大規模な汚職が原因だ。失脚した高官は核兵器を扱うロケット軍などの重要部署に関わり、経験が豊富だ。後任選びの基準は、能力ではなく習氏に対する忠誠心だ。中国軍は見掛けよりもはるかに弱い。新しい兵器を使いこなすには知識と経験が必要だが、有能な人材が足りない。１９７９年以来、中国軍は本格的な実戦を経験しておらず、人事も能力重視ではないからだ。 ―台湾統一に意欲的な習氏が侵攻を命令する可能性は。 台湾への上陸作戦は極めて難しい。事前の動きは衛星やドローンで察知される。ウクライナ侵攻は２年以上続いているが、ロシアは資源が多く持ちこたえている。中国は資源を輸入に頼っている。台湾侵攻が長期化すれば、中国経済への打撃は非常に大きい。経済が停滞している中、戦争を始めれば、共産党体制は崩壊するだろう。習氏が侵攻を決断することはないと思う。 ―習氏が情勢を見誤ることはないか。 中国軍は台湾、南シナ海、日本、朝鮮半島、インドの各地域で連鎖的に戦争が起きることを恐れている。米国と連携する形で、インドが国境地帯で軍事活動を始めれば、中国はお手上げだ。中国は公表していないが、２０年にインドとの国境地帯で起きた衝突で中国側の死者はインド側よりもはるかに多かった。中国軍は戦意が乏しく、訓練も不十分だ。中国軍が近い将来に台湾に侵攻することは不可能だ。習氏も分かっているはずだ。…
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OPEN HOUSE ON CHINA’S TWO SESSIONS
The deliberations of the Two Sessions in China are in an end run. the overall signals are not great. In this episode I have focussed on the PLA since Xi has been showing great interest in it. Needs a bit more analysis as China changes course. Early days. more to come.
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China’s Two Sessions
China’s Two Sessions is an annual event which got under way two days back. The indications are pretty clear – as China declines it is militarising even more. This is only an initial analysis. The real issues will come out in the course of this week. The pointers are clear though as I have explained…
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Will China Invade Taiwan? A Gunners Shot Interaction
Hojo Minoru is an experienced Japanese reporter of Jiji World , a Japanese new agency. He has spent over six years in China till about 2021. He read my article China’s PLA Plagued By 6 ‘New’ Incapabilities That Could Cause Its Eventual Downfall: Ex-Indian General in Eurasian Times ( https://gunnersshot.com/2023/12/07/chinas-pla-plagued-by-6-new-incapabilities-that-could-cause-its-eventual-downfall-ex-indian-general/ ) and felt it was “concise…
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China – The Worlds Biggest Old Age Home
China has an old age population twice the size of India. That is officially. It could actually be more. Its old age dependency ratio is zooming faster than the missiles it fires at Taiwan and is set to be the highest as time passes. Declining birthrates, a contracting work force, unwillingness to marry and a…
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Xi Jinping’s Trials : Taiwan Tension, Troubled Economy & PLA
This episode was an interesting one in which a lot of issues pertaining to contemporary China were covered. Brig Sanal Kumar who has served in China brought an insiders insight to the discussion. One aspect which is emerging clearly is that China has lost much of its sheen.
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Future War in South China Sea
There is no doubt that the South China Sea is a hot spot which could escalate into a full blown conflict any time now. How this war will pan out is anybody’s guess, but the indications are clear. The almost daily incidents which are taking place in the South China Sea between China and Philippines…
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A Peek Into Everyday China: Dousing the Dragon
In this video I have highlighted as to how India is bettering China in some critical areas. What is more important is that this is a view from the Chinese media. Simultaneoulsy India must understand that there will be severe opposition from China in all walks of life. India must start believing in itself and not…
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Crashes of the Chinese Dream
China is going through many crashes these days. I have outlined nine of them and the tenth is in the making. As a result of these, the China Dream has come to a halt! These crashes are a prelude to the ongoing slow collapse of China. Of the nine crashes I have outlined the most…
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THE SLOW COLLAPSE OF CHINA
China is either declining fast or collapsing slowly. Look at it any way- it is happening. That is what Maj Gen R Narayanan(R) and I discussed about. The fact of the matter is that India and the world needs to be prepared for this shift of global nature which is irreversible. Can not be an…
Gunners Shot 